ABSTRACT
Severe restrictions on the operation of logistics chains for the supply of raw materials, equipment needed for the smooth and efficient operation of agricultural enterprises and difficulties in the sale of agricultural products caused by the COVID-19 pandemic threaten the economic stability of these entities and could lead to their bankruptcy. In this regard, it is important to systematically monitor the actual financial and economic results of agricultural enterprises, their forecasting, and taking into account the negative impact of environmental factors and the adaptation of production processes to new realities. At the same time, in the context of the frequent absence of the full amount of information necessary for making managerial decisions, this forecast should compensate for its insufficiency by imitating vectors of possible options for the functioning of agricultural enterprises. Given the above, the purpose of the study is to develop a simulation economic and mathematical model for assessing the financial risk of bankruptcy of agricultural enterprises. In the course of the study, simulation modeling was used-to develop a model for assessing the financial risk of bankruptcy of agricultural enterprises and predicting the financial condition of business entities, taking into account the action of external environmental factors;-logical method-for the implementation of theoretical generalizations to determine the algorithm for constructing a simulation economic and mathematical matrix for assessing the financial risk of bankruptcy of agricultural enterprises;and graphic method-for a visual representation of the architectonics of the process of economic and mathematical modeling of the probability of bankruptcy of agricultural enterprises. In the article, an algorithm for calculating a simulation model adapted to the rapidly changing conditions of the environment of agricultural enterprises is developed. The proposed simulation model helps to obtain realistic results of assessing the financial risk of bankruptcy of agricultural enterprises due to its adaptive properties, which take into account the dynamics of future changes in financial performance of economic entities. In addition, the repeated implementation of simulation replications fully compensates for the lack of full information needed to make management decisions. In this regard, the study substantiates the advantages of using simulation as one of the most promising and accurate tools for constructing an average vector for forecasting the development of agricultural enterprises, which, in turn, will objectively assess the likelihood of their bankruptcy in the future. The practical significance of this model is to enable managers to prevent in advance the onset of crises in agricultural enterprises in future periods of time and to quickly develop appropriate measures to respond to the projected results of this modeling. © 2021, Consulting and Training Center - KEY. All rights reserved.
ABSTRACT
European economic processes have always been the center of public interest. 2010-2019 were characterized by economic development and result achievements in the conditions of information flows exchange and digital changes. However, the pandemic effects of Covid-19 have negatively influenced economic activity, causing significant uncertainty in subsequent economic processes, which were reflected in GDP trends and determined the non-stationary economic conditions. And although the first half of 2021 marks GDP growth, the economic recovery, projected in the traditional scenario, is not enough to reach the precrisis level of production again. The purpose of the study is to identify the effects on European countries economic development and to develop proposals for directions and instruments of regulatory policy transformation, which would take into account the current non-stationary economic conditions. Achieving the goal led to the usage of scientific and practical methods of cognition, including the method of deduction and induction, system analysis, synthesis, generalization, mathematical methods and models. The study characterizes the nature of non-stationary economic development and identifies the need for regulatory influence to ensure further economic growth. The analysis proposes to use GDP as an indicator of economic processes dynamics with the specification of system of direct and indirect influence factors using a multifactor dynamic model. The assessment of depth and nature of their impact allowed to divide them by the stationary and non-stationary criterion. On the basis of received values the directions of regulatory policy transformation in the conditions of non-stationary economic processes have been offered.